Coupled EBM Project Update 9/21

Model Output vs Global (True) Values

http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~esavitch/plots/model_vs_reality.png
Population and pCO2 Data From: Frank, Adam, and Woodruff Sullivan. "Sustainability and the astrobiological perspective: Framing human futures in a planetary context." Anthropocene 5 (2014): 32-41.
Temperature Data From: ​https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt
How I Converted:

  1. Got temperature anomaly data in Celsius from NASA Goddard's website (both smoothed and raw)
  2. Converted the smoothed anomaly data into smoothed global temperature dat (in celsius) using Tony Del Genio's advice: People only report global temperature anomalies because surface weather stations only cover a fraction of the globe, and thus various assumptions are made by different groups to fill in all the places in the world with no data, so the actual temperature of Earth is only known to within a degree or so. People usually define the anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 reference period, whose mean anomaly should be close to zero. If you add a number like 14.5 deg. C to that, that should be as close to a real temperature as you can get. (will post his talk at the bottom of this post)
  3. Then converted from celsius to kelvin (+273.15 deg. C), to compare that data to our model's output

Visualization of the Anthropocene With Actual Global Data

http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~esavitch/plots/anthropocene.png The above plot has been made using the data from Frank and Sullivan, 2014. From this plot, and with the assumption that the Anthropocene started at around 1945, it seems safe to define the Anthropocene physically as the point at which the relationship between human population and their carbon footprint switched from linear to exponential.

Tony's Talk: Albedos, Temperatures, and Habitability of Rocky Exoplanets

​Link to Tony's Talk

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